Abstract: In 2025, Thailand stands (and has long stood) as an entrenched state of exception (Schmitt 1921). The country possesses a palace-dominated, military-undergirded parallel state. When Thailand has not been under military rule, it has possessed frail, democratically-elected governments described variously as “tutelary” (Merkel 2004) or “royalist” (Thongchai 2020). Loveman (1994) refers in greater detail to authoritarian-dominated “protected democracy,” which “is premised on the notion that people must be protected from themselves and from organizations that might subvert the existing political order (111).” Thailand’s “protected democracy” has always comprised regimes of exception and constitutions of exception as of 2025. To what extent might Thailand today be perceived as a “protected democracy?” To what extent has authoritarianism evolved in Thailand? What might be the future of Thai civil-military relations? Using Historical Institutionalism and the concept of “protected democracy,” this study examines the extent to which Thailand has evolved to become a state of exception whereby the military (supported by monarchy) has succeeded in sustaining its power vis-à-vis elected civilians across time. The study contends that Thailand’s royalist parallel state has bolstered itself through an asymmetrical partnership with the military, overshadowing efforts at civilian control which at most have produced protected democracy.
Bio: Dr. Paul Chambers is Lecturer and Special Advisor on International Affairs at the Center of ASEAN Community Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Naresuan University (Thailand). He is a Fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (Singapore), the German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance, and the Cambodian Institute for Cooperation and Peace. He is also the executive editor of the Taylor & Francis (SCOPUS) journal Asian Affairs: an American Review. He has authored or co-authored over 100 publications. Recent works include Khaki Capital: The Political Economy of the Military in Southeast Asia (NIAS, 2017) and Praetorian Kingdom: A History of Military Ascendancy in Thailand (ISEAS, 2024). His research centers upon comparative politics (including civil-military relations) and international affairs in Southeast Asia, specifically Thailand.